Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 agosto 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 01 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 213 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Aug 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 792
(N12E25) produced the largest flare during the period, a long
duration M1/1f flare that occurred at 01/1351Z. This event
generated an associated Tenflare (290 sfu), a Type IV radio sweep,
and a CME that may have a weak geoeffective component. Region 792
underwent a decrease in sunspot number however, sunspot area has
remained the same. This region continues to exhibit
beta-gamma-delta magnetic features. Region 794 (S11E60) produced
the second largest flare during the period, a C5 x-ray event that
occurred at 01/1221Z. This region has shown growth in sunspot area
over the interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 792 is capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated
activity may be attributed to a weak transient that was observed at
the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0500Z. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 27/2300Z ended at 01/1040Z, a maximum
of 41 pfu occurred at 29/1715Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 04 August due to a glancing blow
from the CME that was associated with the M1/1f flare that occurred
today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Aug 111 Previsto 02 Aug-04 Aug 110/105/105 Media de 90 Días 01 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jul 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Aug 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 012/015-005/005-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Aug a 04 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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