Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 033 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 727 (S08W84) is
rotating quietly around the west limb. Region 729 (S10W10), the only
other sunspot group on the visible disk, is in slow decay. No
significant activity was observed on the visible disk or limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels on 03 and 04 February. Old Region 720 (N13,
L=178), which produced several major flares during its previous
transit, is due to rotate onto the visible disk on 05 February.
Expect increased solar activity levels following the return of this
active region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains slightly elevated, ranging between 500 - 550 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Feb a 05 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Feb 082 Previsto 03 Feb-05 Feb 080/085/100 Media de 90 Días 02 Feb 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Feb 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Feb a 05 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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