Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 006 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 715 (N04W46)
is now a small simple beta spot group and is the only sunspot group
on the visible disk. A new active region is rotating onto the
visible disk near S08. No significant activity was noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains elevated;
however, IMF Bz was sustained northward for most of the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high
again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Weak transient
flow from CME activity on 04 and 05 January may create occasional
active periods on 07 and 08 January. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 09 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jan 083 Previsto 07 Jan-09 Jan 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 06 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 011/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 015/015-015/020-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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