Viendo archivo del viernes, 10 diciembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 345 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Dec 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only a few small and
simple sunspot groups populate the visible disk and no activity of
note was observed. New Region 711 (N13W20) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A CME associated
with a long duration C2 flare and filament eruption on 08 December
is expected to create occasional storm periods on 11 and 12
December. A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 13 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Dec 085 Previsto 11 Dec-13 Dec 085/090/090 Media de 90 Días 10 Dec 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 020/020-030/030-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Dec a 13 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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