Viendo archivo del jueves, 9 diciembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Dec 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Dec 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 710 (S07E33) at 09/0012Z. Limited LASCO imagery revealed
what is likely a full halo CME associated with yesterday's long
duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption at 08/1959Z. No other
activity of note occurred.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a low C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 09/0900 - 1200Z. A sustained period of southward Bz
produced the active conditions. Solar wind speed declined to near
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 10 December. Transient flow associated
with the long duration C2 flare and CME on 09 December is expected
to arrive on 11 December. Expect active to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods on 11 and 12 December. A return to
quiet to occasional active levels are expected by the end of the
three-day period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Dec a 12 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Dec 087 Previsto 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/090 Media de 90 Días 09 Dec 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Dec 010/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/008-020/020-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Dec a 12 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 45% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 15% |
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