Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 noviembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Activity was limited to
occasional B-class activity this period. Several new spots emerged
in Region 700 (N05W27), but other than occasional brightness
fluctuations, the region was quiet. No other significant activity or
changes were noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated low C-class activity is possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high
latitude active periods. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated,
ranging from 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 07/1910Z is nearing an end. The current proton flux is
ranging from 5 to 10 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The
greater than 2 MeV proton event in progress since 07 November is
expected to end today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Nov 096 Previsto 14 Nov-16 Nov 095/095/100 Media de 90 Días 13 Nov 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 023/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-008/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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