Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 noviembre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 699 (S13E03) and 700 (N04W40). Region 700
continues to slowly grow in sunspot number and area. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are expected.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Elevated solar wind speed (450 - 550 km/s) and a southward
period of IMF Bz between 13/2300 - 14/0300Z generated the active
periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
07/1910Z, officially ended on 13/1600Z. The peak flux was 495 pfu on
08/0115Z with a secondary peak of 424 pfu on 10/1655Z. This proton
event followed X2 flares on 07 and 10 November. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Nov 100 Previsto 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/110 Media de 90 Días 14 Nov 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-010/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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