Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 enero 2005

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 007 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jan 2005

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New Region 718 (S09E78) was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow, likely the CME activity from 04 and 05 January, impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained southward Bz to near -10 nT between 07/1300 - 1500Z. A second disturbance passed the ACE spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the IMF Bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at high levels since 03 January, dropped below the high threshold at approximately 07/1900Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow from the CME activity on 04 and 05 January will continue the current disturbance through 08 January. Periods of minor to major storming are expected on the 8th. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09 January, before gradually returning to predominantly quiet conditions on 10 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jan a 10 Jan
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Jan 084
  Previsto   08 Jan-10 Jan  085/090/090
  Media de 90 Días        07 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  018/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  025/040-012/020-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jan a 10 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%15%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%30%20%
Tormenta Menor30%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%01%

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