Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 008 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There has been a steady
stream of B-class flares with a single C1.0 that occurred 08 Jan at
1957Z. Region 718 (S06E66) remains steady with a low probability
for flare activity. Region 719 (S09E82) was newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flare activity is possible from the
regions near the southeast limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels.
Disturbances in the geomagnetic field early on 08 Jan have been
associated with solar wind transients and interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuations.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The solar wind transients
should abate by the end of 08 Jan, and have little impact on the
geomagnetic field for 09 through 11 Jan.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jan 089 Previsto 09 Jan-11 Jan 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 08 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jan 021/037 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 022/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 012/020-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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