Viendo archivo del domingo, 9 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 009 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 719 (S09E65)
produced an M2.4 at 0854Z on 09 Jan which was accompanied by Type II
radio emissions indicating a CME. Though it is reported as a small
region, it continues to produce several plage fluctuations and point
brightenings. Flare potential for this region remains fair. Region
718 (S06E54) continues to shrink, loosing another sunspot over
yesterday with no other significant activity noted.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There does, however exist the slight chance that Region 719 will
produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
solar wind transient activity of the previous few days has subsided,
with solar wind speeds returning to a nominal 450 km/s. The
geomagnetic field did incur a 12 nT sudden impulse on 09 Jan at
1042Z, but it was of insufficient strength and duration to cause a
storm-level response.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 10 through 12 Jan.
There is a possibility for an isolated period of active or minor
storming levels on 12 Jan due to the grazing impact of a coronal
hole induced high speed solar wind stream. The CME activity
generated by the M-class activity of 09 Jan is strongly directed
away from Earth, and is unlikely to generate elevated activity
levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jan 088 Previsto 10 Jan-12 Jan 090/085/090 Media de 90 Días 09 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 020/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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