Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 036 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Multiple
C-class flares occurred from a source on the east limb near N14, the
largest was a C7 x-ray event that occurred at 04/2357Z. This is
likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178). LASCO imagery
depicts two distinct CME eruptions from the solar east limb which do
not appear to be Earth directed. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels throughout the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (6
Feb). Predominantly active conditions with periods of minor
storming are possible on 7-8 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Feb 095 Previsto 06 Feb-08 Feb 105/115/125 Media de 90 Días 05 Feb 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/010-015/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 05% |
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