Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 037 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
732 (N09E70, believed to be old Region 720) was numbered today and
was the source for the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 06/0939Z. Analysis of the magnetic field structure
indicates a fair amount of complexity over a large are of plage
while the sunspot area coverage is currently meager. New Region 731
(S02E27) was also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 732 could continue the production of C-class
flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The active
conditions occurred between 06/0600 and 0900Z due to the associated
solar sector boundary crossing that was seen at the ACE spacecraft
at approximately 06/0500Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storming for 7 February due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions are
expected on 7-8 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Feb 097 Previsto 07 Feb-09 Feb 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 06 Feb 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 001/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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