Viendo archivo del martes, 1 febrero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Feb 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 032 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Feb 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The two sunspot regions on
the visible disk, Regions 727 (S09W68) and 729 (S08E06), were quiet
and stable. A 9 degree filament erupted from near S15W16 at
01/0800Z, but there was no apparent CME on LASCO imagery. An
impressive backside full halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery at
01/1106Z. The likely source of this eruption was old Region 720
(N13, L=178), which is due to return to the visible disk on 05
February. A Type II radio sweep (660 km/s) and a 245 MHz burst of
9800 sfu were observed at 01/1032Z, and were likely associated with
this backside CME.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. The activity level is expected to increase after 05 February
when old Region 720 returns to the visible disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated, but gradually declined from near 620 km/s to 530
km/s to end the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Feb 084 Previsto 02 Feb-04 Feb 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 01 Feb 102
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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