Viendo archivo del martes, 1 marzo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 01 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 060 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Mar 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There is
only one single, small sunspot on the visible disk. A series of
complex eruptions were observed on LASCO imagery beginning at
28/2330Z. These were likely backsided events, as there is no
apparent frontside source for this CME activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. A high speed coronal hole stream
continues to buffet the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed ranged
from 600 - 700 km/s, but the IMF Bz was predominantly northward.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods through 03 March. Quiet levels are expected on 04
March as the high speed solar wind stream rotates out of a
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Mar a 04 Mar
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Mar 074 Previsto 02 Mar-04 Mar 075/075/080 Media de 90 Días 01 Mar 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Mar a 04 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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