Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 marzo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 02 2320 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 061 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Mar 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Newly
numbered Region 740(S07W24) emerged today and quickly developed into
a CSO Beta spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled, becoming quiet late in
the UTC day. A high speed coronal hole stream remains geoeffective.
Solar wind speed ranged from 600 - 700 km/s; however, a downward
trend was observed through the day. The IMF Bz varied between +/- 4
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet levels are
expected on 04 and 05 March as the high speed solar wind stream
rotates out of a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Mar 075 Previsto 03 Mar-05 Mar 075/080/080 Media de 90 Días 02 Mar 097
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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