Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 marzo 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 066 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Mar 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 570 (S13E70) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1217Z. Multiple lesser C-class flares were also observed throughout the day. A cluster of trailing sunspots became visible early in the period. There is a significant distance between the lead and trailing sunspots (over 15 heliospheric degrees) although initial magnetic analysis suggest that all features associated to plague field are one region. Region 567 (S12W55) produced two low level C-class flares early in the period. The sunspot coverage increased since yesterday although the weak delta complex separated into two distinct sunspots today, indicating some decay in magnetic field structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 7 and 8 March. The onset of an intense solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated on 9 March, which precedes a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Active to minor storm conditions are expected with the onset.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Mar a 09 Mar
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Mar 105
  Previsto   07 Mar-09 Mar  110/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        06 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  005/008-005/008-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Mar a 09 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%30%
Tormenta Menor01%01%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%45%
Tormenta Menor05%05%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%15%

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