Viendo archivo del domingo, 8 febrero 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 039 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Feb 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels in the last minutes of the period. Region 554 (S08E62) produced an M1/Sf event at 08/2051Z. Multiple B and C-class flares where attributed to this region during the period. This region has recently rotated onto the visible solar disk and may have a weak gamma magnetic structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot cluster, currently analyzed as a beta group. Region 551 (S06W14) continues to show steady growth in penumbral coverage and continued counter-clockwise rotation of the intermediate sunspots was evidenced once again during the interval. A single lesser B-class flare was the extent of flare activity in this region today. Spotless active Region 553 (S04W38) managed to produce a C1 x-ray flare at 08/0452Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 have the potential to produce isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible in the nighttime sectors throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Feb a 11 Feb
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Feb 116
  Previsto   09 Feb-11 Feb  120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        08 Feb 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Feb a 11 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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