Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 040 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
554 (S08E52) produced numerous B and C-class flares today. Ten
C-class flares were recorded with the largest being a C9 x-ray event
that occurred at 09/1102Z. LASCO imagery has shown little, if any
associated CME signatures during the past 24 hours of activity from
this region. Magnetic analysis depicts a delta configuration within
the dominant intermediate spot. Region 551 (S06W27) did not manage
any flare production during the interval, although surging and point
brightenings were observed throughout the period. The gamma
structures in the central and trailing portions of the sunspot group
remain intact. Region 555 (S14E72) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 both have the potential
to produce M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. 12 February may
experience active conditions due to a solar sector boundary
crossing, preceding an anticipated recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Feb a 12 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Feb 118 Previsto 10 Feb-12 Feb 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 09 Feb 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Feb 002/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Feb a 12 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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