Viendo archivo del domingo, 7 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 067 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 567 (S14W66) has
undergone a reduction in both magnetic complexity and size since
yesterday. It is now only 80 millionths of the solar disk, and has
been reclassified a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 570
(S14E59) is now in full view, and has reached a size of 570
millionths. Magnetic classification remains Beta for the region.
However, there continues to be a significant distance between the
leading and trailing sunspots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for moderate. Region 570, and to a lesser
degree 567, continue to have a fair potential for an M-class flare
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the 8th. The
field is expected to then jump to mostly unsettled with isolated
periods of active levels during the 9th and 10th. A high-speed
solar wind stream is approaching, and is expected to influence the
Earth's magnetic field beginning late on the 9th.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Mar a 10 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Mar 106 Previsto 08 Mar-10 Mar 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 07 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Mar 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Mar 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 005/008-012/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Mar a 10 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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