Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 abril 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Apr 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 093 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Apr 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
582 (N14W35) continues to decay and has lost the gamma magnetic
structure in the leading portion of the region. Region 587 (S13E11)
has been in a steady growth phase in sunspot area and produced a low
level B-class flare today. Region 581 (S05W41) and 588 (S12E64)
both produced low level B-class flares as well. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 587 has the potential of producing a low level
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 3 April. A shock
passage from the long duration C3 flare that occurred on 31 March is
expected to arrive on 4 April. Active to minor storm levels are
possible with the shock passage. On 5 April active to minor storm
levels are also expected due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction
region.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Apr a 05 Apr
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Apr 108 Previsto 03 Apr-05 Apr 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 02 Apr 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Apr 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Apr 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Apr a 05 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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