Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 abril 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Apr 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 092 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Apr 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 582
(N14W22) continued to show steady decay while producing the largest
flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1711Z.
The magnetic beta-gamma structures in the lead polarity have become
less organized however, they remain intact. Region 587 (S13E24)
underwent decay in sunspot area during the period. New Region 588
(S12E74) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing a low level
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled for 2-3 April. Updated LASCO
imagery depicts a full halo CME from the long duration C3 x-ray
flare that occurred at 31/1151Z. A resulting shock passage is
anticipated on 4 April with active to minor storm conditions
possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Apr a 04 Apr
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Apr 113 Previsto 02 Apr-04 Apr 115/110/110 Media de 90 Días 01 Apr 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 005/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Apr a 04 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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