Viendo archivo del martes, 5 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 036 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar Activity was at moderate levels. Region 9802
(S15W56) produced an M1.3/Sf flare at 04/2330 UTC. Region 9802
continues to show gradual decay but remains a magnetically complex
Beta-gamma-delta region. Region 9816 (S12W46) growth continues but
at a slower rate than yesterday. A large positive polarity coronal
hole near central latitude is currently rotating into a
geo-effective position. Solar wind speed has increased to 550
km/sec at the time of forecast issue. Three new regions were
numbered today: Region 9817 (S07E23), Region 9818 (N06E54), and
Region 9819 (S29E68).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9802 and has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one 3
hour period of quiet conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions is expected to return by day
three of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| Clase M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Feb 221 Previsto 06 Feb-08 Feb 225/225/220 Media de 90 Días 05 Feb 225
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 014/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 015/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Feb a 08 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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