Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 063 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9845
(N17W46) was the source of a few impulsive, weak C-class events.
This region retains its moderate size and magnetic complexity, but
has been relatively stable and has yet to produce any significant
flare activity. Three new regions were numbered today: 9857
(S04W58), 9858 (S30E05), and 9859 (S10E47).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to persist
at predominantly low levels. Region 9845 remains a possible source
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The onset of high speed
stream effects from a large, recurrent coronal hole was apparent
over the course of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active due to coronal hole effects for
the next 36-48 hours. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible
at higher latitudes. By day three of the forecast period, quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Mar a 07 Mar
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Mar 175 Previsto 05 Mar-07 Mar 170/165/175 Media de 90 Días 04 Mar 221
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Mar 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 020/020-020/030-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Mar a 07 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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