Viendo archivo del martes, 5 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 064 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A B9 flare
(optically uncorrelated) occurred at 05/0534 UTC, this was the only
recorded flare of the period. Several Type III radio sweeps
comprised the rest of the activity seen during the period. Region
9845 (N17W60) saw a decrease in spot count but remained unchanged in
areal coverage. Region 9851 (S06E02) has shown some growth in spot
coverage and magnetic complexity late in the period. New Regions
9860 (S06E61) and 9861 (N07E66) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9845 continues to be complex enough to possibly
produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High
speed stream effects of a large, recurrent coronal hole remains
geoeffective.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to active conditions through day one of
the forecast period. Due to coronal hole effects, minor storm
conditions may be possible at higher latitudes through day one as
well. Days two and three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Mar a 08 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Mar 172 Previsto 06 Mar-08 Mar 170/170/175 Media de 90 Días 05 Mar 220
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 020/030-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Mar a 08 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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