Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 037 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9802
(S13W68) produced an M1.4 flare at 06/1132 UTC. Region 9816
(S11W58) produced a C8/Sf at 06/0445 UTC with an associated Type II
Radio Sweep (457 km/s). Region 9802 has shown rapid decay in the
last 24 hours and now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration with
310 millionths area, 17 spots and an extent of 13 degrees. Region
9816 also has entered a decay phase.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9802, while in a decay phase, still has the
potential for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one 3
hour period of quiet conditions. A large coronal hole is centered
at S10W40 and is producing the unsettled to active conditions. This
coronal hole has an average solar wind speed of 625 km/s over the
last 24 hours. Average Bz for the last 24 hours was a negative 0 -
5 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the first day of the
forecast period. Day two and three are expected to return to quiet
to unsettled levels as the coronal hole rotates beyond a
geo-effective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Feb 203 Previsto 07 Feb-09 Feb 205/200/195 Media de 90 Días 06 Feb 225
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Feb 015/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Feb 015/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Feb a 09 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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