Viendo archivo del miércoles, 6 marzo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 065 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Mar 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare (optically uncorrelated) was the extent of the observed flare activity for the period. Several minor discrete radio bursts and multiple Type III radio sweeps comprised most of the rest of the day's activity. At the beginning of the period, a 14 degree disappearing filament was seen near S43W25 which made up the rest of the activity for today. Region 9845 (N17W74) remains quiescent and showed continued gradual decay, although this region continues to show moderate complexity. New Regions 9862 (N06W58), and 9863 (N18W37) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9845 continues to exhibit a slight possibility of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. High speed stream effects of a large, transequatorial, coronal hole continues.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels through most of day one due to continued coronal hole effects. The remainder of the forecast period should see a return to quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Mar a 09 Mar
Clase M25%25%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Mar 178
  Previsto   07 Mar-09 Mar  185/185/190
  Media de 90 Días        06 Mar 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Mar  010/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  014/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  012/015-012/012-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Mar a 09 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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