Viendo archivo del jueves, 7 marzo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 066 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Mar 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Several minor C-class flares with no optical correlation occurred during the period. The largest appears to be a C6 that was in progress at the time of this writing. Region 9851 (S02W24) has shown penumbral growth in the lead complex of the spot group today. Region 9845 (N17W86) has almost completely exited the west limb. The rest of the spotted groups have been unchanged or in varying degrees of weak decay. New Region 9864 (N18E69) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated minor storm condition was observed at Fredericksburg at 06/2100 UTC, believed to be a result of a large, transequatorial coronal hole during it's waning stage. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit has been elevated throughout the period following the passage of the high speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Mar a 10 Mar
Clase M20%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Mar 180
  Previsto   08 Mar-10 Mar  180/175/175
  Media de 90 Días        07 Mar 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Mar  016/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  009/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Mar a 10 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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