Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 febrero 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 035 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Feb 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9809 (S06E16) produced two M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M2 x-ray flare at 04/0602 UTC, an M1 followed shortly thereafter, at 04/0658 UTC. Both of these flares were optically correlated using SOHO/EIT and Culgoora Solar Observatory data. Region 9802 (S14W44) produced a C7/Sf flare at 04/1909 UTC along with several other smaller C-class flares throughout the period. This region also grew in penumbral coverage since yesterday and is an Fki beta-gamma-delta complex. Region 9800 (N10W73) has continued to decay as it nears the west limb. Numerous minor and significant Type III radio sweeps were observed today. Newly numbered Region 9816 (S13W33) is showing rapid growth in spot areal coverage and produced a Sf flare at 04/0438 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9802 may yet produce an isolated major flare before exiting the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast. Active conditions may be expected due to the effects of a large transequatorial coronal hole for days two and three of the forecast. Additionally, a slight chance of isolated minor storm levels could occur at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Feb a 07 Feb
Clase M60%60%50%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Feb 235
  Previsto   05 Feb-07 Feb  230/225/215
  Media de 90 Días        04 Feb 225
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Feb  006/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  004/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-010/015-014/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Feb a 07 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%20%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%30%40%
Tormenta Menor05%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

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