Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 009 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9773 (N14W05) produced
an impulsive M9/2b flare at 1801 UTC, with an associated radio burst
of 230 sfu at 2695 MHz. Earlier it had an M1/1f at 1113 UTC. The
region grew significantly in white light and h-alpha during the day,
and evolved magnetically to a beta gamma-delta type. It seems to
still retain its potency, and is prominent from its location near
center disk. Region 9767 (S18W61) generated a few c-class events as
it simplified. Newly numbered Region 9780 (S11W49) emerged on the
disk. Today's 10.7 cm solar flux measurement may be flare enhanced.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9767 and 9773 each have the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
High-speed solar wind is expected to buffet the magnetosphere
throughout the period, bringing occasional episodes of minor
storming to local nighttime sectors.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jan 229 Previsto 10 Jan-12 Jan 230/235/240 Media de 90 Días 09 Jan 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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