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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 07/0618Z from Region 3599 (S12W02). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 07/2043Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1828Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 137
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  014/015-015/020-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%20%
Minor storm20%25%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%60%30%

All times in UTC

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