Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 16/1354Z from Region 3514 (N05W82). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (17 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 16/0036Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/1913Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13 pfu at 16/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (18 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M55%25%25%
Class X25%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 149
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 145/140/138
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  016/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  025/032-014/018-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%20%

All times in UTC

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