Viewing archive of Friday, 15 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
15/0734Z from Region 3514 (N05W68). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17
Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 15/1545Z. Total IMF reached 23
nT at 15/1443Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
15/1110Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 15/1650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 Dec), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (17 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(16 Dec), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Dec) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 50% | 35% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 144 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 017/024-025/032-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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