Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
14/1702Z from Region 3514 (N05W50). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 14/0027Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 14/0117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/0058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Dec, 16
Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Dec). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Dec, 16 Dec) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 40% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Proton | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 155 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 013/020-019/022-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
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