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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 18/2234Z from Region 3490 (N18E69). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 19/0805Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 19/0759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0411Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 140
  Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  019/020-007/010-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%30%

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