Viewing archive of Friday, 8 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
08/0112Z from Region 3513 (N19E27). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec,
11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 525 km/s at 07/2339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Dec, 10 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 133 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 005/005-005/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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