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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/1633Z from Region 3464 (N04W06). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 14/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 145
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/005-011/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%35%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%35%50%

All times in UTC

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