Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
03/0836Z from Region 3413 (N10W0*). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 836 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 131 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 130/135/130 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 025/038 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 020/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 010/012-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
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