Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
02/0712Z from Region 3413 (N10W89). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (03 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 02/1536Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/0407Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 02/0541Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 01/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 344 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 131 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 135/130/135 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 025/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 025/035-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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