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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0351Z from Region 3413 (N10W74). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (02 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 01/2024Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1256Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25 pfu at 01/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), active to minor storm levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (02 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M25%20%15%
Class X05%05%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 136
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  013/015-025/035-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%15%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%70%30%

All times in UTC

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