Viewing archive of Monday, 7 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1 event observed at
07/2046Z from Region 3386 (N11W0*). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug,
09 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 07/1942Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 07/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/0136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 170 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 024/035-014/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 30% | 20% |
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