Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
09/0354Z from Region 3296 (N15W37). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 08/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 09/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2315Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38 pfu at 09/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 435 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(10 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 May) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 180 Predicted 10 May-12 May 180/180/178 90 Day Mean 09 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 013/025-023/030-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
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