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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/2323Z from Region 3296 (N16W06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 08/1552Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 07/2345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 08/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (09 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (10 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton95%50%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 172
  Predicted   09 May-11 May 170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        08 May 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  017/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  013/014-012/018-024/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm45%30%45%

All times in UTC

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