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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04/0345Z from Region 3323 (S07E20). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (07 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 04/2016Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 328 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (07 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M35%35%25%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 168
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 163/160/160
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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