Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
10/1421Z from Region 3296 (N15W49). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 10/1139Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 10/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 09/2329Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 83 pfu at 10/1250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (11 May), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (12 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11
May), are likely to cross threshold on day two (12 May) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 170 Predicted 11 May-13 May 170/168/166 90 Day Mean 10 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 022/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 025/046-020/030-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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