Viewing archive of Friday, 14 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0944Z from Region 3112 (N23W92). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Oct) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Oct,
17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 14/2046Z. Total IMF reached 18
nT at 14/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
14/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 121 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 118/115/110 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 15% |
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