Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 347 km/s at 09/2340Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/1456Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
10/1917Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1334 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 139 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 011/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 007/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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