Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0019Z from Region 3112 (N23W80). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 448 km/s at 13/2010Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
13/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4331 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 130 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 130/120/115 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 35% |
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