Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2344Z from Region 3098 (N18W36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep,
16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 371 km/s at 12/2235Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/0454Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 13/0325Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4758 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Sep, 15 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 154 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
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