Viewing archive of Monday, 12 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/2228Z from Region 3098 (N18W22). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep,
15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 11/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/1224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0509Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 12/1345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6040 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Sep,
14 Sep, 15 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (13 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (14 Sep, 15 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 150 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 009/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
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