Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1019Z from Region 3098 (N18W65). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep,
17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 14/1945Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
14/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/1932Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 14/0640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15800 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Sep).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 144 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-012/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 35% |
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